March Madness- Is it really an upset?

I’ll start this off by saying that I’m no bracketologist or March Madness expert. I’ve made some good picks this year (which you’ll read about soon), but I also picked St John’s to go to the Final Four, which didn’t work out too well. My bracket is far from perfect; it’s not even average, for that matter. However, I do have some ideas about how these brackets are analyzed and calculated, and I hope you enjoy.

Everyone knows that the best part of March Madness is, well, the madness of it all. America (that’s North America, not only the Excited States) loves a good underdog story, and there’s nothing better than buzzer beaters and frantic finishes.

Part of the magic of the tournament is the possibility that in any game, some hot shooting, small conference team can unseat a Big East or SEC powerhouse. The David and Goliath story has always been one of humanity’s favourite.

However, diving deeper into the teams and the tournament seeding, this underdog complex becomes a bit muddled. Rankings don’t tell the whole story, and sometimes they can be misleading. How small is David really, and for that matter, how much bigger is Goliath?

To translate for those who don’t understand the biblical reference: What’s the real difference between a 7 seed and a 10, or even a 5 and a 12?

To properly understand the lack of disparity between some teams in the tournament, look no further than this year’s first round matchup between 5^th seeded Vanderbilt and 12^th ranked Richmond. Looking at this game, Richmond must obviously be the underdog, no doubt about it. Vandy’s a five seed and Richmond’s a twelve, the Commodores should take this one no problem, right?

Wrong. Richmond beat Vanderbilt in a nail biter, and supplied the perfect example for this particular post. Most people considered the Spiders’ victory an upset, and based solely on the seeding of the two teams, they would be right. The thing is though, looking at the statistics, this wasn’t really an upset at all. Richmond finished 27-7 on the year, compared to Vanderbilt’s 22-10 mark. Granted, Vanderbilt does play in a stronger conference (SEC) than Richmond (Atlantic-10), but it still shows that the Spiders are no slouches.

Richmond also finished 3-3 against top 50 opponents this season, and four out of their seven losses came against tournament bound teams. Vandy, on the other hand, finished 5-8 against top 50 teams, including an abysmal 2-5 mark against teams in the top 25. Most of their losses were against strong SEC teams, but this only magnifies Vanderbilt’s troubles in dealing with good teams.  

Richmond’s Justin Harper and PG Kevin Anderson also both averaged over 16 ppg this season, and Anderson was on a tear going into the game, scoring 20+ in 5 of his last 6 games. Anderson is also a senior, which is a quality that can’t be overlooked come tournament time, especially with point guards.

Morehead State is another example. Morehead had a strong regular season as well, finishing 24-9. They also have a proven inside monster in senior center Kenneth Faried, and are flat out beastly on the offensive glass. While Morehead’s “upset” of Louisville was much more of an upset then Richmond’s over Vandy, it was nonetheless another case of the NCAA overplaying the whole underdog-favourite obsession.

Now this isn’t to say that Richmond or Morehead State should’ve been the favourite. I’m merely trying to point out the at-times misleading nature of NCAA tournament rankings. In most cases, the higher seed is still the favourite and the lower seed is still the underdog. The difference between the two teams is rarely as big as advertised though.

The NCAA would love to keep this a secret. The Cinderella story is a proven seller, and if people found out that these Cinderella teams aren’t really as Cinderella-ey as they are made out to be, some of the magic may be lost.

The tournament needs this magic though. As long as tiny David keeps trying to dethrone mighty Goliath, the magic of the tournament will live on, and with it, so will the madness.

PS: I picked Richmond and Morehead State in my bracket. Just saying.