Can the Jimmer do it alone?

With the NCAA tournament starting on Thursday (I don’t count the money grabbing play-in games), I think a March Madness post is due. I’ll spare you the generic “here are my bracket and upset picks” article, and instead focus on one specific subject. I’ve always found it’s more interesting to discuss key players and teams, instead of the tournament as a whole.

In this case, I’m talking about one team, and specifically, one player. He’s a player that almost everyone (including non College Basketball fans) knows, and he is one of the few players with the potential to light this tournament up with both his scoring and star profile.

The one, the only, the Jimmer        

In a year where ranked teams dropped like flies and no clear cut favourites emerged, Jimmer mania has taken hold of the nation. From circus layups to near half court three balls, the Jimmer is undoubtedly the most exciting player in basketball. He’s brought BYU into the national spotlight, and has enthralled even the most casual of basketball fans.

In a league where great scorers average 20 points per game, Jimmer averages 28.5. In a league where you’re supposed to play by the book and run specific sets and plays, Jimmer heaves deep treys whenever he feels like it. He takes crazy fall aways, contested midrange J’s, and out of the country threes; and still shoots 45 percent from the field. In the MWC tournament semi finals, BYU won 87-76, and Jimmer scored 52. 52 points, that is not a typo. He scored 60% of his team’s points, and it’s not like BYU had a bad offensive game.

As much as he tries to tell the media otherwise, Jimmer is BYU. Without him, BYU wouldn’t be even half the team they are now. It’s not just his scoring numbers though, it’s so much more. To fully understand Jimmer’s effect on the Cougars, we have to look beyond the statistics.

Jimmer averages 4 assists a game, which is already pretty high for a combo guard in college. But assist totals don’t even begin to explain what kind of effect Jimmer has on his teammates. Jimmer’s “in the building range” (CBS analyst’s words) forces teams to double him most of the time, which creates open shots for his teammates. His primary defender also can’t help on any other BYU player if the play breaks down since he has to stick to Jimmer at all times.  He spaces out the floor, keeps the middle of the lane unclogged, and gives his teammates the opportunity to go one on one with their defenders whenever they want.

Having said all of this, keep in mind that not everything is so rosy in Cougar Land. Since starter and leading rebounder Brandon Davies’ suspension for breaking the Honour Code, Jimmer has taken an insane number of shots, even for him. In the five games since Davies’ suspension, Jimmer has shot over 40% of his team’s shots four times. He’s even had two +50% games, both against New Mexico (51.4% and 54.4%).

Now the big question is: Can the Jimmer do it alone?

I hate to say it, but I don’t think he can. Without Davies, the Cougars are simply not strong enough to battle Pitt and Florida in the Southeast region, and will have trouble with any big, long team that can (to some degree) lock down Jimmer. That may mean holding him to only 30, but I digress.

BYU is way too reliant on Jimmer, and if he’s hoisting up 25-30 shots a game, they’ll be in trouble. Then again, if Jimmer catches fire and starts knocking down shots from different time zones, we could see the Cougars in the Final Four. It probably won’t happen, but it’s always nice to dream; Jimmer Fredette, raining down shots in Houston, continuing to prove all the naysayers wrong.

Jimmerific.