It’s only seven games into the season, but as of right now, the Toronto Blue Jays' offense is humming.
The Jays are hitting hard and hitting often, and one of the great early season revelations has been the play of newly minted first baseman Adam Lind.
When Lind is on, the Jays' offense becomes a terror for opposing pitchers. He adds power, contact, and the ability to get on base, which is often overlooked in dealing with power hitters. With a strong and healthy Jose Bautista and Lind in the middle of the order, the Jays have one heck of a 3-4 spot.
It’s only seven games in though, so Toronto shouldn’t be planning out the championship parade just yet.
For the Jays, the question remains: Will we see big swinging, walk taking, 2009 Adam Lind? Or will we see the sub .250 hitting, strikeout producing, 2010 Adam Lind?
Lind had a career year in ’09, posting a 305/370/562 (Average, OBP, Slugging), with 35 HRs, 114 RBIs, and a very solid 3.5 WAR. For those not familiar with advanced baseball metrics, WAR stands for wins above replacement. This means that in 2009, Lind gave his team almost 3.5 more wins than an average player would have at his position.
To put this strong year in perspective, Alex Rodriguez, a player universally known as a star in the baseball world, posted a WAR of 4.5 in 2009. This means that in ’09, Lind brought his team only one less win than A-Rod did. Lind also played a position with stronger competition (LF as opposed to 3B), making his WAR all the more impressive.
The next year however, it all went downhill for the Jays' outfielder. His numbers plummeted to 237/287/425, with 23 HRs and 77 RBIs. His WAR also dropped to a horrible -0.3. For all those wondering, this does in fact mean that Lind was actually worse than the average LF in 2010.
For Jays fans everywhere, this came as a shock. What happened to the sweet swinging Adam Lind from just a year earlier?
I decided to try to decipher this very question, using the ultimate baseball statistics encyclopaedia that is FanGraphs.
I made a few interesting discoveries, but they all lead back to one basic aspect of Lind’s game. Obviously Lind’s major stats, like batting average, OBP, and slugging all went down. However, Lind’s line drive percentage, usually a good indicator of the type of contact a hitter is making, stayed about the same from ’09 to ’10.
Most of Lind’s numbers decreased gradually, but in a way that is to be expected when a guy's main stats go down. However, there was one key facet of Lind’s game that decreased, and I think this was the cause of his major decline.
Basically, in 2010, Lind’s plate discipline became less, well, disciplined. Lind swung at ten percent more pitches outside of the zone, struck out 34 more times, and walked 20 less. Lind began swinging at pitches off the plate, stopped working counts as much, and started whiffing more. Definitely seems like a recipe for mediocrity to me.
One of the keys to Lind’s success in 2009 was his ability to see pitches, and with it, take them the other way. This isn’t to say Lind was a model of patience; he only walked 58 times. However, it is more about Lind’s ability not to swing at pitches outside the zone. By being more patient and swinging at quality pitches, Lind was able to drive the ball to all fields while increasing his OBP.
All this comes back to the initial question: Which season was the fluke, 2009 or 2010?
Right now, things look promising. Lind has only struck out once so far this year, while driving the ball all over the field and seeing a lot of strikes. No one can know for sure if this production will continue, but if Jays fans start seeing Lind’s plate discipline return to 2009 form, there will be plenty of reason for optimism.
For more news, musings and the odd bit of knowledge, follow Daniel on Twitter @SportsDanMTL
The Jays are hitting hard and hitting often, and one of the great early season revelations has been the play of newly minted first baseman Adam Lind.
When Lind is on, the Jays' offense becomes a terror for opposing pitchers. He adds power, contact, and the ability to get on base, which is often overlooked in dealing with power hitters. With a strong and healthy Jose Bautista and Lind in the middle of the order, the Jays have one heck of a 3-4 spot.
It’s only seven games in though, so Toronto shouldn’t be planning out the championship parade just yet.
For the Jays, the question remains: Will we see big swinging, walk taking, 2009 Adam Lind? Or will we see the sub .250 hitting, strikeout producing, 2010 Adam Lind?
Lind had a career year in ’09, posting a 305/370/562 (Average, OBP, Slugging), with 35 HRs, 114 RBIs, and a very solid 3.5 WAR. For those not familiar with advanced baseball metrics, WAR stands for wins above replacement. This means that in 2009, Lind gave his team almost 3.5 more wins than an average player would have at his position.
To put this strong year in perspective, Alex Rodriguez, a player universally known as a star in the baseball world, posted a WAR of 4.5 in 2009. This means that in ’09, Lind brought his team only one less win than A-Rod did. Lind also played a position with stronger competition (LF as opposed to 3B), making his WAR all the more impressive.
The next year however, it all went downhill for the Jays' outfielder. His numbers plummeted to 237/287/425, with 23 HRs and 77 RBIs. His WAR also dropped to a horrible -0.3. For all those wondering, this does in fact mean that Lind was actually worse than the average LF in 2010.
For Jays fans everywhere, this came as a shock. What happened to the sweet swinging Adam Lind from just a year earlier?
I decided to try to decipher this very question, using the ultimate baseball statistics encyclopaedia that is FanGraphs.
I made a few interesting discoveries, but they all lead back to one basic aspect of Lind’s game. Obviously Lind’s major stats, like batting average, OBP, and slugging all went down. However, Lind’s line drive percentage, usually a good indicator of the type of contact a hitter is making, stayed about the same from ’09 to ’10.
Most of Lind’s numbers decreased gradually, but in a way that is to be expected when a guy's main stats go down. However, there was one key facet of Lind’s game that decreased, and I think this was the cause of his major decline.
Basically, in 2010, Lind’s plate discipline became less, well, disciplined. Lind swung at ten percent more pitches outside of the zone, struck out 34 more times, and walked 20 less. Lind began swinging at pitches off the plate, stopped working counts as much, and started whiffing more. Definitely seems like a recipe for mediocrity to me.
One of the keys to Lind’s success in 2009 was his ability to see pitches, and with it, take them the other way. This isn’t to say Lind was a model of patience; he only walked 58 times. However, it is more about Lind’s ability not to swing at pitches outside the zone. By being more patient and swinging at quality pitches, Lind was able to drive the ball to all fields while increasing his OBP.
All this comes back to the initial question: Which season was the fluke, 2009 or 2010?
Right now, things look promising. Lind has only struck out once so far this year, while driving the ball all over the field and seeing a lot of strikes. No one can know for sure if this production will continue, but if Jays fans start seeing Lind’s plate discipline return to 2009 form, there will be plenty of reason for optimism.
For more news, musings and the odd bit of knowledge, follow Daniel on Twitter @SportsDanMTL
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