Jays lose a tough one at Fenway

Here's an article originally written for Sports Haze. It can be found at http://sportshaze.com/toronto/toronto-blue-jays/jays-lose-a-tough-one-at-fenway-3006'

The Red Sox used a strong start and had an impressive game from Jed Lowrie, and Josh Beckett to beat the
Jays Saturday afternoon in Boston.

Beckett pitched seven impressive innings, giving up only three hits and two walks while striking out nine. Lowrie led the way offensively for the Sox, going 3-5 with a two run bomb in the second inning.

No-No Jo-Jo

Sorry Jays fans, not that kind of no no. Jays starter Jo Jo Reyes struggled again for the Jays, lasting only three innings before getting sent to the showers. Reyes struggled from the get-go, giving up two runs before even recording his first out in the first inning. Reyes was lucky to escape with only two runs against in the first, but it was more of the same in the second.

Lowrie hit a two run homer to give the Sox a 4-1 lead in the second, putting the game out of reach for the Jays. Reyes ended up leaving the game after the third, giving up seven hits and five walks while only recording nine outs. He finished with a pathetic 4.00 WHIP.

Aaron Hill getting off the shnide

In Tim Ziegler’s preview for this series, he mentioned three players who need to up their game from last series, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill and Travis Snider. While both Lind and Hill had strong games last night, Hill really continued his strong play on Saturday at Fenway.

He smacked a double in the first inning, walked once, and had a debateable infield single in the ninth that was eventually marked as an error. Even with that hit taken away, Hill still finished the day 1-3, got on base in three out of his five ABs, and scored a run. He also ran the bases very aggressively, which leads us to the next point...

Running Wild

John Farrell wasn’t kidding when he said he wanted to run more this year. The Jays continued with their running ways against Boston, stealing three bases and getting caught one other time.

Toronto’s aggressiveness on the base paths has been welcomed this year, but John McDonald’s attempted steal in the eighth inning was one example of a time where maybe the Jays should have let the situation play itself out.

McDonald led off the inning with an infield single, and with no outs and the top of the order coming up for Toronto, he was caught stealing, easily, by Jason Varitek.

It wasn’t all bad on the bases for the Jays though, as Aaron Hill’s savvy base running in the second inning produced Toronto’s only run. Hill hit a screamer off the Monster, and instead of watching the ball in flight, immediately began tearing around the bases. He managed to make it in to second with a sliding double.

With one out, Snider came up next and hit a sinking liner to right. Hill read it off the bat, and was off and running right away, allowing him to beat out the throw at the plate.

Golden glove work all around

This game was an absolute clinic for defensive baseball.

For Boston, Adrian Gonzalez robbed Corey Patterson not once, not twice, but three times at first base. Gonzalez made three separate diving stops against the Jays center fielder, giving Patterson a very misleading 0-4 day at the plate. It’s safe to say Patterson will be seeing Gonzo in his nightmares tonight.

John McDonald, the Jays pint sized defenvie dynamo, was even more impressive. He made three fantastic diving plays at third base, two of them coming at key points in the game.

With the Sox already up 4-1 and Mike Cameron having singled to start the third, McDonald made a diving stop on Jason Varitek and managed to complete the 5-4-3 double play, helping the Jays and Jo Jo Reyes stay at a reasonable deficit.

He also robbed Jacoby Ellsbury in the eighth, as the speedy Boston outfielder sliced one hard to third with two outs and runners at second and third. McDonald managed to stop the ball, get up and fire it across the diamond just in time to get Ellsbury at first, allowing the Jays to escape the inning unscathed.

For more news, thoughts, and the odd bit of knowledge, follow Daniel on twitter @SportsDanMTL.
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Jose Bautista: The patient slugger

Is Adam Lind ready to explode?

Jose Bautista; the home run trotting, walk taking slugger

Here's a piece originally written for Sports Haze Toronto. It can be found at http://sportshaze.com/toronto/toronto-blue-jays/patience-is-a-virtue-2901

As everybody knows, Jose Bautista swung his way to a historic breakout season last year for the Jays.

Bautista, with a previous career high of 16 in the home run department, mashed 54 home runs in 2010, to go along with 124 RBIs and a steroid-era like .617 slugging percentage.

(Don’t worry Jays fans; this isn’t a post accusing Bautista of anything of the sort.)

I want to use this article to help identify one of Bautista’s other strengths, one that was all too often overlooked last year.

Many Bautista detractors point to his pedestrian .260 batting average when looking at his sensational 2010 season. People like to say that Bautista’s not that great of a hitter, and he was merely the product of a very high 21.7 percent homerun/fly ball ratio.

This means that 21.7 percent of Bautista’s fly balls left the yard last year. While yes, this number is high, and yes, Bautista’s batting average was not sublime, it still doesn`t justify the Bautista haters.

Why not? I’m glad you asked.

Many of the “anti Jose” baseball observers fail to look at one key stat when evaluating Bautista’s talents. It is something that I’ve always noticed about Jose, even during his average-hitting, utility man days. With a little research, my suspicions were proven correct, yet again by the wonderful FanGraphs.  

Bautista walks. A lot.

Not only did Jose smash 54 homeruns in ’10, but he also finished with an OBP of .378. Bautista walked 100 times in ’10, and finished with a solid BB% of 14.6, which was right about in line with his 2009 percentage of 13. 9.

This year has been more of the same for Bautista, as he’s sporting a ridiculous .538 OBP through eight games this season (he`s missed three for the birth of his daughter), with 10 walks.

As first explained in the famous baseball book, Moneyball, OBP is an extremely important, if often overlooked stat. Baseball is all about getting scoring more runs than the other team, and the best way to score runs is to get men on base. It’s as simple as that.  

In recent years, OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) has become an even more vital stat. OPS is used to judge both a player’s ability to get on base and his ability to hit for power. These are two statistics that are imperative to success in baseball, and this is where Bautista really earns his stripes.

Bautista finished with a .995 OPS in 2010, putting him fifth in the MLB, behind such illustrious names as Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols. Bautista finished just a hair behind all four of these players, and the fact that he’s in a group with both the NL and AL MVP in this all important stat is truly telling.  

Bautista’s patience at the plate doesn’t only help with his OBP and OPS numbers, but it helps with other, less quantifiable parts of the game.

Bautista’s usually sees a lot of pitches, which tires pitchers out and helps the rest of the team. Also, because of Bautista’s ability to lay off bad pitches and not chase the off speed stuff, pitchers are forced to throw more fastballs to him; and we all know what Bautista does with fastballs.

Bautista finished with a ludicrously high 36.7 runs above average against the heater last year. To put this in perspective, only two players finished with a higher wFB in 2010. Cabrera and Pujols, who were ranked third and fourth last year in this category, finished pretty far behind Bautista at only 31.6 and 31.5, respectively.

Bautista’s ability to hit good pitches and see a lot of fastballs can all be attributed back to his patience at the plate. While most kids will probably grow up trying to hit homers like Jose, maybe, just maybe, they’ll think about working counts as well.

For more news, thoughts, and the odd bit of knowledge, follow Daniel on twitter @SportsDanMTL.

Adam Lind on the comeback trail

Here's a piece orginially written for SportsHaze Toronto which can be found at http://sportshaze.com/toronto/toronto-blue-jays/the-comeback-trail-2790

It’s only seven games into the season, but as of right now, the Toronto Blue Jays' offense is humming.
The Jays are hitting hard and hitting often, and one of the great early season revelations has been the play of newly minted first baseman Adam Lind.

When Lind is on, the Jays' offense becomes a terror for opposing pitchers. He adds power, contact, and the ability to get on base, which is often overlooked in dealing with power hitters. With a strong and healthy Jose Bautista and Lind in the middle of the order, the Jays have one heck of a 3-4 spot.

It’s only seven games in though, so Toronto shouldn’t be planning out the championship parade just yet.
For the Jays, the question remains: Will we see big swinging, walk taking, 2009 Adam Lind? Or will we see the sub .250 hitting, strikeout producing, 2010 Adam Lind?

Lind had a career year in ’09, posting a 305/370/562 (Average, OBP, Slugging), with 35 HRs, 114 RBIs, and a very solid 3.5 WAR. For those not familiar with advanced baseball metrics, WAR stands for wins above replacement. This means that in 2009, Lind gave his team almost 3.5 more wins than an average player would have at his position.

To put this strong year in perspective, Alex Rodriguez, a player universally known as a star in the baseball world, posted a WAR of 4.5 in 2009. This means that in ’09, Lind brought his team only one less win than A-Rod did. Lind also played a position with stronger competition (LF as opposed to 3B), making his WAR all the more impressive.

The next year however, it all went downhill for the Jays' outfielder. His numbers plummeted to 237/287/425, with 23 HRs and 77 RBIs. His WAR also dropped to a horrible -0.3. For all those wondering, this does in fact mean that Lind was actually worse than the average LF in 2010.

For Jays fans everywhere, this came as a shock. What happened to the sweet swinging Adam Lind from just a year earlier?

I decided to try to decipher this very question, using the ultimate baseball statistics encyclopaedia that is FanGraphs.

I made a few interesting discoveries, but they all lead back to one basic aspect of Lind’s game. Obviously Lind’s major stats, like batting average, OBP, and slugging all went down. However, Lind’s line drive percentage, usually a good indicator of the type of contact a hitter is making, stayed about the same from ’09 to ’10.

Most of Lind’s numbers decreased gradually, but in a way that is to be expected when a guy's main stats go down. However, there was one key facet of Lind’s game that decreased, and I think this was the cause of his major decline.

Basically, in 2010, Lind’s plate discipline became less, well, disciplined. Lind swung at ten percent more pitches outside of the zone, struck out 34 more times, and walked 20 less. Lind began swinging at pitches off the plate, stopped working counts as much, and started whiffing more. Definitely seems like a recipe for mediocrity to me.

One of the keys to Lind’s success in 2009 was his ability to see pitches, and with it, take them the other way. This isn’t to say Lind was a model of patience; he only walked 58 times. However, it is more about Lind’s ability not to swing at pitches outside the zone. By being more patient and swinging at quality pitches, Lind was able to drive the ball to all fields while increasing his OBP.

All this comes back to the initial question: Which season was the fluke, 2009 or 2010?

Right now, things look promising. Lind has only struck out once so far this year, while driving the ball all over the field and seeing a lot of strikes. No one can know for sure if this production will continue, but if Jays fans start seeing Lind’s plate discipline return to 2009 form, there will be plenty of reason for optimism.

For more news, musings and the odd bit of knowledge, follow Daniel on Twitter @SportsDanMTL

Butler got Butler'd

There’s probably approximately 20 000 game recaps of last night’s Butler-UConn championship game last night, so I won’t bore you with another one. Anyone who watched the game knows the basics of it. Butler shot like a bunch of Ben Wallace’s, Jeremy Lamb took control in the second half, and the Bulldogs got bullied down low.

Instead of talking about these obvious facts though, I’m going to talk about something else. With about three minutes remaining in the game, when the Huskies had already pretty much locked up the title, a certain thought came to my mind. Butler was getting Butler’d.

Let’s look at how Butler wins games. The Bulldogs play tenacious defence, make clutch shots, and play strong inside. They surprise you with their toughness, make plays when they need them, and just flat out beat you. No funny business.

On Monday night in Texas, this is exactly what one of the teams in the championship game did. The problem was that it wasn’t Butler.

The Huskies completely shut down the Bulldogs offence in this battle of the canines. Their perimeter defence was suffocating, and the length and strength of their bigs down low really disrupted the Butler forwards. UConn played relentless man to man defence all game, giving Butler a taste of the medicine that propelled the Bulldogs to this very championship game.

An even bigger parallel between the way UConn won and the way Butler wins was the presence inside shown by the Huskies Charles Okwandu, Alex Oreaki and Roscoe Smith. Not only did these guys play huge down low, but in a way, they played surprisingly huge. Butler’s bigs have played strong inside all tournament, but for the most part, this facet of the Bulldogs game is usually overlooked.

All the build-up to this game was about Kemba Walker, UConn’s sublime point guard from NYC. While Kemba definitely merited all this attention with his incredible play all year, the Husky bigs were nonetheless overlooked. Oreaki, Okwandu and Smith were not given nearly enough attention coming into this one, at least by the media. However, when it mattered most, these guys really delivered for the Huskies, in a very Butler-esque way.

UConn also made big shots when it mattered most, especially during their 14-1 in the early part of the second half. This run took control of the game for the Huskies, and it came as a result of some clutch offence and strong defence. Jeremy Lamb was especially clutch, hitting a 22 foot, game breaking three that gave UConn the lead that they would never relinquish.

Just like Butler has always done, every game has a different hero. This game was supposed to be all about Kemba Walker slicing and dicing his way to a championship. Instead, the Huskies relied on a heavy dose of Butler related tactics, and the strong play of Lamb, Oreaki, Okwandu and Smith.

When it boils down to it, winning is what the NCAA tournament is all about. UConn might not have won pretty, and Kemba might not have shined like the star he is, but regardless, the Huskies are going home champions. Butler’s winning recipe clearly works very well; next time however, they should try to be the ones using it.

The beauty of the imperfect game: Why we love baseball

One of my favourite times of the year is upon us. Baseball Opening Day has just come and gone, and everyone seems to be a bit, well, happier. The start of baseball coincides with the start of spring, and honestly, I think God intended it this way.

Now I don’t want to start a religious debate. I’m not saying God watches baseball either; based on the violence of the Bible, I always pegged him as a hockey or football kind of guy.

What I’m trying to say is that baseball and spring time go together perfectly. At the start of spring, everyone is hopeful and excited for the summer to come. The snow is gone, the weather’s warming up, and everything’s going to be wonderful.

Then, a few months later, rain starts to fall, the basketball and hockey seasons end, and spring loses its glamour. As with a lot of things, the build up for the warm weather months usually turns out to be a lot better than the actual result.

The same thing goes for the baseball season. Fans everywhere look forward to the baseball season like no other sporting season. And the reason for this anticipation is exactly the same as for spring.

At the beginning of the season, anything is possible. Jays and Royals fans can dream of postseason success. Every up and coming prospect is going to turn into Albert Pujols. The Nats will get over the .500 mark. Every crazy dream like this feels attainable.

Opening day offers endless possibilities, and only once the dog days of summer arrive, reality kicks in. Small market teams get brushed aside by conglomerates known as the Yankees and Red Sox. Bad teams remain bad. Hot starting journeymen fizzle out. We start realizing again, like we do every year, that the baseball season is never really as great as we expect it to be in April.

Now I don’t want you to think of me as a baseball hater; I’m actually the opposite. I love the sport more than most, and would back it up in any argument. Lord knows I’ve had to. Lots of people hate baseball, and I defend the game at any opportunity. But that’s a post for another day.

The important thing is that I’m a huge baseball fan. Do I think expectations are too high at the beginning of the season? Yes. Do I think the season is too long and can get boring in late July and August? Of course I do.

But these are things that can never be changed. They are ingrained in the game just as much as the Green Monster, Wrigley field and Vin Scully are. The high expectations and long season are part of the tradition of baseball, and when it comes down to it; tradition is what baseball is all about.

Yankee Stadium may be a bit too small to be a fair major league park, but it will never be changed. While yes, it was rebuilt very recently, it was built with the exact same dimensions, as to not lose the tradition of the historic park. It may not be perfect, but in baseball more than other sports, it doesn’t have to be.

Tradition remains supreme in the sport, and that’s why, to some, baseball remains the American pastime. Football has taken over as the most popular sport in America, but to the older generation, baseball still holds the number one spot.

The baseball season is far from perfect, and it’s definitely too long. But regardless, it’s our imperfect season. Just like spring, we can count on baseball season returning every year, with the same great unrealistic expectations, the same hopeful enthusiasm. Baseball is and always will be a model of imperfection. Just the way we like it.